diff --git a/packages/mosaic/src/cli.ts b/packages/mosaic/src/cli.ts
index 4bccd371..0b884cac 100644
--- a/packages/mosaic/src/cli.ts
+++ b/packages/mosaic/src/cli.ts
@@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ import { registerRestoreCommand } from './commands/restore.js';
 import { registerSkillCommand } from './commands/skill.js';
 // prdy is registered via launch.ts
 import { registerLaunchCommands } from './commands/launch.js';
+import { registerLeaseCapabilityProbe } from './commands/lease-activation-probe.js';
 import { registerAuthCommand } from './commands/auth.js';
 import { registerFederationCommand } from './commands/federation.js';
 import { registerGatewayCommand } from './commands/gateway.js';
@@ -78,6 +79,10 @@ Command Groups:
 
 registerLaunchCommands(program);
 
+// ─── lease activation capability probe (hidden; #869 Point-1 C1) ────────
+
+registerLeaseCapabilityProbe(program);
+
 // ─── login ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 program
diff --git a/packages/mosaic/src/commands/launch.ts b/packages/mosaic/src/commands/launch.ts
index 2a696820..6f4e5041 100644
--- a/packages/mosaic/src/commands/launch.ts
+++ b/packages/mosaic/src/commands/launch.ts
@@ -806,7 +806,14 @@ function launchRuntime(runtime: RuntimeName, args: string[], yolo: boolean): nev
   process.exit(0); // Unreachable but satisfies never
 }
 
-function defaultLeaseBrokerSocket(env: NodeJS.ProcessEnv = process.env): string {
+/**
+ * Resolve the lease broker's control socket path. Exported (in addition to
+ * being used internally by execLeaseGatedRuntime) so the C1 activation probe
+ * (lease-activation-probe.ts) can perform the same resolution when checking
+ * whether the broker supervisor is reachable — detection only, this never
+ * connects to the socket itself.
+ */
+export function defaultLeaseBrokerSocket(env: NodeJS.ProcessEnv = process.env): string {
   if (env['MOSAIC_LEASE_BROKER_SOCKET']) return env['MOSAIC_LEASE_BROKER_SOCKET'];
   const runtimeDir = env['XDG_RUNTIME_DIR'];
   if (runtimeDir) return join(runtimeDir, 'mosaic-lease', 'broker.sock');
@@ -895,7 +902,12 @@ function delegateToScript(scriptPath: string, args: string[], env?: Record<strin
  * bundled in the @mosaicstack/mosaic npm package (always matches the installed
  * CLI version) over the deployed copy in ~/.config/mosaic/ (may be stale).
  */
-function resolveTool(...segments: string[]): string {
+/**
+ * Exported so the C1 activation probe (lease-activation-probe.ts) can resolve
+ * the same lease-broker launcher/daemon artifacts execLeaseGatedRuntime()
+ * uses, for detection-only supervisor presence checks.
+ */
+export function resolveTool(...segments: string[]): string {
   try {
     const req = createRequire(import.meta.url);
     const mosaicPkg = dirname(req.resolve('@mosaicstack/mosaic/package.json'));
diff --git a/packages/mosaic/src/commands/lease-activation-probe.spec.ts b/packages/mosaic/src/commands/lease-activation-probe.spec.ts
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..338c8a3b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/mosaic/src/commands/lease-activation-probe.spec.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,166 @@
+import { describe, it, expect } from 'vitest';
+import { Command } from 'commander';
+import {
+  LEASE_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY,
+  LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_COMMAND,
+  defaultCapabilityProbe,
+  defaultSupervisorProbe,
+  leaseEnforcementActivatable,
+  registerLeaseCapabilityProbe,
+  type LeaseActivationCapability,
+  type SupervisorProbeResult,
+} from './lease-activation-probe.js';
+
+/**
+ * Red-first tests for issue #869 Point-1 C1 — leaseEnforcementActivatable().
+ *
+ * Root cause under test: #828 shipped the lease broker's ENFORCEMENT half
+ * (hooks) and ACTIVATION half (execLeaseGatedRuntime + a running daemon.py
+ * broker) on different channels, and they drifted — the published CLI
+ * tarball lacked the activation half even though it existed in source. The
+ * predicate here must say NO when either half of activation is unavailable,
+ * and only YES when both are genuinely present — never based on "does the
+ * source file exist", but on a real capability signal + real supervisor
+ * detection.
+ */
+
+const compatibleCapability: LeaseActivationCapability = { ...LEASE_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY };
+const presentSupervisor: SupervisorProbeResult = {
+  supervisorPresent: true,
+  socketPath: '/run/user/1000/mosaic-lease/broker.sock',
+};
+
+describe('leaseEnforcementActivatable', () => {
+  it('is false when the activation capability is absent (null)', () => {
+    const result = leaseEnforcementActivatable({
+      getCapability: () => null,
+      probeSupervisor: () => presentSupervisor,
+    });
+    expect(result).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('is false when the activation capability name does not match', () => {
+    const result = leaseEnforcementActivatable({
+      getCapability: () => ({
+        name: 'some-other-capability',
+        version: LEASE_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY.version,
+      }),
+      probeSupervisor: () => presentSupervisor,
+    });
+    expect(result).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('is false when the activation capability version is incompatible (stale/newer build)', () => {
+    const result = leaseEnforcementActivatable({
+      getCapability: () => ({
+        name: LEASE_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY.name,
+        version: LEASE_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY.version + 1,
+      }),
+      probeSupervisor: () => presentSupervisor,
+    });
+    expect(result).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('is false when the supervisor artifacts (launcher/daemon) are not present', () => {
+    const result = leaseEnforcementActivatable({
+      getCapability: () => compatibleCapability,
+      probeSupervisor: () => ({
+        supervisorPresent: false,
+        socketPath: presentSupervisor.socketPath,
+      }),
+    });
+    expect(result).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('is false when the supervisor socket path is not resolvable', () => {
+    const result = leaseEnforcementActivatable({
+      getCapability: () => compatibleCapability,
+      probeSupervisor: () => ({ supervisorPresent: true, socketPath: null }),
+    });
+    expect(result).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('is false when BOTH capability and supervisor are absent', () => {
+    const result = leaseEnforcementActivatable({
+      getCapability: () => null,
+      probeSupervisor: () => ({ supervisorPresent: false, socketPath: null }),
+    });
+    expect(result).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('is true when a compatible capability AND a resolvable supervisor are both present', () => {
+    const result = leaseEnforcementActivatable({
+      getCapability: () => compatibleCapability,
+      probeSupervisor: () => presentSupervisor,
+    });
+    expect(result).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('uses the real default probes when no deps are injected (does not throw)', () => {
+    // No live broker / built CLI is guaranteed in a test environment, so this
+    // only asserts the predicate degrades to a safe boolean rather than
+    // throwing — the fail-closed behavior itself is covered by the injected
+    // cases above.
+    expect(() => leaseEnforcementActivatable()).not.toThrow();
+    expect(typeof leaseEnforcementActivatable()).toBe('boolean');
+  });
+});
+
+describe('defaultCapabilityProbe', () => {
+  it('returns null (fail-closed) when no built CLI artifact is resolvable', () => {
+    // This source checkout has no dist/cli.js built for @mosaicstack/mosaic,
+    // so the probe must report "no capability" rather than fabricate one
+    // from source-tree presence — this is the exact distinction #828's
+    // version skew needed: source existing is not the same as the published
+    // artifact advertising the capability.
+    expect(defaultCapabilityProbe()).toBeNull();
+  });
+});
+
+describe('defaultSupervisorProbe', () => {
+  it('returns a well-shaped result without starting or connecting to anything', () => {
+    const result = defaultSupervisorProbe({});
+    expect(typeof result.supervisorPresent).toBe('boolean');
+    expect(result.socketPath === null || typeof result.socketPath === 'string').toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('resolves a socket path from an explicit MOSAIC_LEASE_BROKER_SOCKET override', () => {
+    const result = defaultSupervisorProbe({ MOSAIC_LEASE_BROKER_SOCKET: '/tmp/explicit.sock' });
+    expect(result.socketPath).toBe('/tmp/explicit.sock');
+  });
+});
+
+describe('registerLeaseCapabilityProbe', () => {
+  it('registers a hidden subcommand named __lease-capability', () => {
+    const program = new Command();
+    program.exitOverride();
+    registerLeaseCapabilityProbe(program);
+
+    const registered = program.commands.find((c) => c.name() === LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_COMMAND);
+    expect(registered).toBeDefined();
+    // Commander exposes "hidden" only as help-output suppression (no public
+    // getter) — assert the observable behavior instead of a private field.
+    expect(program.helpInformation()).not.toContain(LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_COMMAND);
+  });
+
+  it('prints the capability constant as JSON when invoked', () => {
+    const program = new Command();
+    program.exitOverride();
+    registerLeaseCapabilityProbe(program);
+
+    let written = '';
+    const originalWrite = process.stdout.write.bind(process.stdout);
+    process.stdout.write = ((chunk: string) => {
+      written += chunk;
+      return true;
+    }) as typeof process.stdout.write;
+
+    try {
+      program.parse(['node', 'mosaic', LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_COMMAND]);
+    } finally {
+      process.stdout.write = originalWrite;
+    }
+
+    expect(JSON.parse(written)).toEqual(LEASE_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY);
+  });
+});
diff --git a/packages/mosaic/src/commands/lease-activation-probe.ts b/packages/mosaic/src/commands/lease-activation-probe.ts
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..9507561a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/mosaic/src/commands/lease-activation-probe.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,191 @@
+/**
+ * Lease-enforcement activation probe (issue #869, Point-1 card C1).
+ *
+ * Root cause this exists to guard against (#828 version skew): the
+ * ENFORCEMENT half of the lease broker (PreToolUse/Stop hooks —
+ * `mutator-gate.py`, `receipt-observer-client.py` — wired via the framework
+ * reseed) and the ACTIVATION half (`execLeaseGatedRuntime()` in `launch.ts`,
+ * which chains the runtime through `launch-runtime.py`, injects
+ * `MOSAIC_LEASE_*`, and requires a running `daemon.py` broker) ship on
+ * different channels. When the published CLI tarball lags behind an
+ * enforcement reseed, the gate correctly fails CLOSED on absent identity —
+ * but every tool call then denies with GATE_UNAVAILABLE. That fail-closed
+ * behavior is intentional and must not change (see the C-REGRESS note in
+ * `runtime_tools_unittest.py`); this module exists so a downstream
+ * install-ordering guard (C2, out of scope here) can refuse to WIRE
+ * enforcement in the first place on a host that cannot ACTIVATE it.
+ *
+ * `leaseEnforcementActivatable()` answers one narrow question: "if
+ * enforcement were wired right now, could activation actually satisfy it?"
+ * It is a real capability probe — not a "does the source file exist" check
+ * — and both of its inputs are injectable so tests can drive every branch
+ * without a live broker or an installed CLI on PATH.
+ */
+
+import { execFileSync } from 'node:child_process';
+import { existsSync } from 'node:fs';
+import { createRequire } from 'node:module';
+import { dirname, join } from 'node:path';
+import type { Command } from 'commander';
+import { defaultLeaseBrokerSocket, resolveTool } from './launch.js';
+
+// ─── Capability signal (owned by the activation half) ──────────────────────
+
+/**
+ * Versioned identity for the activation contract `execLeaseGatedRuntime()`
+ * implements. OWNED by the activation half of the lease broker. Bump
+ * `version` only when the activation contract itself changes (env vars
+ * injected, chaining behavior, socket protocol, etc.) — deliberately
+ * independent of the package's npm semver, because #828 happened precisely
+ * because the npm version was NOT bumped even though the shipped artifact
+ * fell out of sync. A build that cannot advertise this exact
+ * `{ name, version }` pair does not implement the contract a caller is
+ * relying on, whatever its package.json claims.
+ */
+export interface LeaseActivationCapability {
+  readonly name: string;
+  readonly version: number;
+}
+
+export const LEASE_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY: LeaseActivationCapability = {
+  name: 'lease-runtime-activation',
+  version: 1,
+};
+
+/** Hidden CLI probe subcommand name — wired via {@link registerLeaseCapabilityProbe}. */
+export const LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_COMMAND = '__lease-capability';
+
+function capabilityMatches(candidate: LeaseActivationCapability | null): boolean {
+  return (
+    candidate !== null &&
+    candidate.name === LEASE_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY.name &&
+    candidate.version === LEASE_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY.version
+  );
+}
+
+/**
+ * Register the hidden `__lease-capability` probe subcommand. Prints the
+ * capability this BUILD advertises as compact JSON to stdout and exits 0.
+ * Deliberately undocumented (hidden from `--help`): it is an internal signal
+ * for {@link defaultCapabilityProbe}, not a user-facing command.
+ */
+export function registerLeaseCapabilityProbe(program: Command): void {
+  program
+    .command(LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_COMMAND, { hidden: true })
+    .description('Internal: print the lease-activation capability this build advertises')
+    .action(() => {
+      process.stdout.write(JSON.stringify(LEASE_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY));
+    });
+}
+
+/**
+ * Real capability lookup. Resolves the installed `@mosaicstack/mosaic`
+ * package's BUILT entrypoint (`dist/cli.js` — the published artifact a user
+ * actually runs, not this TypeScript source file) and executes its hidden
+ * `__lease-capability` probe subcommand out-of-process. A build that lacks
+ * the subcommand, fails to execute, or reports an incompatible
+ * `{ name, version }` is treated as having NO activation capability.
+ *
+ * This is the check that would have caught #828's version skew: the
+ * source-tree activation half existed, but the published tarball's `dist/`
+ * did not carry it, so this probe — reading the actually-resolvable built
+ * artifact rather than trusting source-tree presence — would report null.
+ */
+export function defaultCapabilityProbe(): LeaseActivationCapability | null {
+  try {
+    const req = createRequire(import.meta.url);
+    const pkgJsonPath = req.resolve('@mosaicstack/mosaic/package.json');
+    const cliEntry = join(dirname(pkgJsonPath), 'dist', 'cli.js');
+    if (!existsSync(cliEntry)) return null;
+
+    const output = execFileSync(process.execPath, [cliEntry, LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_COMMAND], {
+      encoding: 'utf-8',
+      timeout: 2000,
+      stdio: ['ignore', 'pipe', 'ignore'],
+    });
+
+    const parsed: unknown = JSON.parse(output);
+    if (
+      typeof parsed !== 'object' ||
+      parsed === null ||
+      typeof (parsed as Record<string, unknown>)['name'] !== 'string' ||
+      typeof (parsed as Record<string, unknown>)['version'] !== 'number'
+    ) {
+      return null;
+    }
+    const candidate = parsed as { name: string; version: number };
+    return { name: candidate.name, version: candidate.version };
+  } catch {
+    return null;
+  }
+}
+
+// ─── Supervisor / socket resolution (detection only) ───────────────────────
+
+/** Detection-only supervisor/socket probe result. Never starts the broker
+ * and never connects to the socket — presence and path resolution only. */
+export interface SupervisorProbeResult {
+  /** The lease-broker supervisor artifacts (launcher + daemon) are present. */
+  readonly supervisorPresent: boolean;
+  /** Resolved broker socket path, or null if it could not be resolved. */
+  readonly socketPath: string | null;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Real supervisor/socket resolution: checks that the lease-broker's launcher
+ * (`launch-runtime.py`) and supervisor (`daemon.py`) artifacts resolve on
+ * disk via the same tool-resolution `execLeaseGatedRuntime()` uses, and that
+ * a broker socket path resolves via the same logic as
+ * `defaultLeaseBrokerSocket()`. Detection only — this never starts the
+ * daemon and never connects to the socket.
+ */
+export function defaultSupervisorProbe(
+  env: NodeJS.ProcessEnv = process.env,
+): SupervisorProbeResult {
+  const launcherPath = resolveTool('lease-broker', 'launch-runtime.py');
+  const daemonPath = resolveTool('lease-broker', 'daemon.py');
+  const supervisorPresent = existsSync(launcherPath) && existsSync(daemonPath);
+
+  let socketPath: string | null = null;
+  try {
+    const resolved = defaultLeaseBrokerSocket(env);
+    socketPath = resolved.trim().length > 0 ? resolved : null;
+  } catch {
+    socketPath = null;
+  }
+
+  return { supervisorPresent, socketPath };
+}
+
+// ─── Predicate ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/** Injectable inputs for {@link leaseEnforcementActivatable}, so tests (and
+ * downstream callers such as the C2 install-ordering guard) can drive every
+ * branch without a live broker or an installed CLI on PATH. */
+export interface ActivationProbeDeps {
+  getCapability?: () => LeaseActivationCapability | null;
+  probeSupervisor?: () => SupervisorProbeResult;
+}
+
+/**
+ * True IFF lease enforcement can actually be ACTIVATED on this host:
+ *
+ *   (a) the resolvable CLI advertises a {@link LeaseActivationCapability}
+ *       compatible with {@link LEASE_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY}, AND
+ *   (b) the broker supervisor is resolvable — launcher + `daemon.py`
+ *       artifacts present AND a broker socket path resolves.
+ *
+ * Pure/testable: both probes default to the real, side-effect-free lookups
+ * above but can be injected, so this predicate never itself starts a broker
+ * or performs enforcement — it only reports whether activation *could*
+ * satisfy enforcement if wired.
+ */
+export function leaseEnforcementActivatable(deps: ActivationProbeDeps = {}): boolean {
+  const getCapability = deps.getCapability ?? defaultCapabilityProbe;
+  const probeSupervisor = deps.probeSupervisor ?? defaultSupervisorProbe;
+
+  if (!capabilityMatches(getCapability())) return false;
+
+  const supervisor = probeSupervisor();
+  return supervisor.supervisorPresent && supervisor.socketPath !== null;
+}
diff --git a/packages/mosaic/src/mutator-gate/fail-closed-regression.spec.ts b/packages/mosaic/src/mutator-gate/fail-closed-regression.spec.ts
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..9e6b1420
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/mosaic/src/mutator-gate/fail-closed-regression.spec.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+import { spawnSync } from 'node:child_process';
+import { join } from 'node:path';
+
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest';
+
+/**
+ * C-REGRESS (issue #869, Point-1) — proves the fail-closed gate is untouched
+ * by the C1 activation probe added alongside this test.
+ *
+ * `mutator-gate.py`'s fail-closed-on-absent-identity behavior is INTENTIONAL
+ * and TEST-LOCKED: #869 C1 gates the WIRING decision for enforcement (via
+ * `leaseEnforcementActivatable()`), it does not — and must not — touch the
+ * gate's own runtime denial behavior. This spec runs the two test-locked
+ * cases from `runtime_tools_unittest.py` directly (rather than merely
+ * re-asserting the same logic in TypeScript) so a regression in the actual
+ * Python gate is caught here too, not just documented in prose.
+ */
+
+const MUTATOR_GATE_DIR = new URL('.', import.meta.url).pathname;
+const UNITTEST_FILE = join(MUTATOR_GATE_DIR, 'runtime_tools_unittest.py');
+
+const LOCKED_TEST_CASES = [
+  'ExecutableEntrypointTest.test_gate_entrypoint_denies_when_identity_environment_is_absent',
+  'MutatorGateTest.test_environment_generation_and_request_failures_deny',
+] as const;
+
+describe('mutator-gate fail-closed behavior (C-REGRESS, unchanged by #869 C1)', () => {
+  it.each(LOCKED_TEST_CASES)('%s still passes', (testCase) => {
+    const result = spawnSync('python3', ['-m', 'unittest', `${moduleName()}.${testCase}`, '-v'], {
+      cwd: MUTATOR_GATE_DIR,
+      encoding: 'utf-8',
+    });
+
+    expect(result.status, `stderr:\n${result.stderr}`).toBe(0);
+  });
+});
+
+function moduleName(): string {
+  // runtime_tools_unittest.py, addressed as a bare module name for `python3 -m unittest`.
+  return UNITTEST_FILE.split('/').pop()!.replace(/\.py$/, '');
+}