fix(ci): assert pinned greenfield expected red

docs/scratchpads/1050-install-state-machine-red-fixture.md

@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ Implement C1 from the canonical greenfield-install PRD v2: a transactional P0–
 
 - Canonical requirements: `jason.woltje/jarvis-brain` `docs/plans/2026-08-04-greenfield-install-blockers-PRD-v2.md`. Currency was re-derived after compaction: authenticated fetch resolved `origin/main` to `cb23e5fbc8a282fa967b93d7a134fa48d11b4bb1`; the PRD and charters are byte-identical to the previously read remote copies.
 - Tracking: `mosaicstack/stack#1050` on `git.mosaicstack.dev` (author read back as `be-coder-05`).
-- Base: `origin/next` `4df478cdd150fdf8d52ea109f02ade5d85017acd`.
+- Historical implementation base: `origin/next` `4df478cdd150fdf8d52ea109f02ade5d85017acd`. Delivery PR #1054 targets `main` under L0's trunk-only rule; `next` remains a non-merging integration lane.
 - Out of scope: PATH, skills, headless wizard/identity, activation remediation, #869 wiring, RM-02, main promotion.
 - `docs/TASKS.md` is orchestrator-single-writer and is not modified by this worker.
 
@@ -49,13 +49,13 @@ Implement C1 from the canonical greenfield-install PRD v2: a transactional P0–
 - [x] P1 false pass identified from the P4 evidence row: `git` is absent from the Debian base and was undeclared even though skill sync shells out to it. C1 adds `git` to P1; the fixture matrix preserves absent/present controls. The prior claim that web1's missing runtime skills reproduce this greenfield mechanism is withdrawn by the TL and is not carried here.
 - [x] Corrected RED transcript captured and reported, including the git-present/absent controls and strict P3 PASS.
 - [x] State-machine implementation complete: private pre-mutation journal/snapshot, P0–P8 `--check`, P2–P8 fault seam, rollback, durable manifest/journal seal, action-status persistence, safe rollback roots, and stale-projection recovery.
-- [x] Debian/glibc checkout fixture now packages the complete current checkout, verifies its digest in-container, and reaches the expected attributable RED without host inheritance.
+- [x] Debian/glibc checkout fixture now packages the complete current checkout, verifies its digest in-container, and reaches the expected attributable RED without host inheritance. CI compares its exact final phase map/reasons to `tools/fixtures/greenfield-expected-red.tsv`; the fixture remains red while the detector job is green only on an exact match.
 - [ ] Reviews complete. Automated review defects around Bash conditional errexit, explicit exits, P4/P6 persisted action status, dev/offline source resolution, stale locks, checkout coverage, and rollback path safety were remediated. Remaining automated objections are the charter-mandated expected RED/C5 boundary and signed provenance, which the canonical PRD explicitly defers; independent informed review is still required.
 
 ## Risks / blockers
 
 - The deployed create wrappers do not expose `--dry-run`; identity preflight was performed through `pr-merge.sh --dry-run` on the same HOMELAB repo, which resolved `git.mosaicstack.dev` + `be-coder-05`. The issue create then fell back from tea to the API but provider read-back confirmed author `be-coder-05`.
-- `next` is an integration lane; `main` promotion remains #1037-owned.
+- `next` is a non-merging integration lane; PR #1054 targets `main`. The old “pending promotion to main” caution dissolved when the base moved. #1050 remains open after merge and closes only after Jarvis validates the greenfield behavior.
 - #869 must remain staged and inactive.
 - Late sequencing input MB-BRAIN-01 is accommodated without implementation or renumbering: P2 covers installer distribution only; P5 owns requested credential capability; P7 leaves an ordered seam for credential-dependent resource provisioning after P5.
 
@@ -64,5 +64,5 @@ Implement C1 from the canonical greenfield-install PRD v2: a transactional P0–
 - `bash -n` and ShellCheck pass for all changed shell surfaces; `git diff --check` passes.
 - `bash tools/install-state-machine.test.sh` passes, including exact P0–P8 rows, good/bad discrimination, persisted P4/P6 action failures, P2–P8 rollback, unsafe/overlapping/symlink roots, stale `active.json`, and fatal journal initialization.
 - `bash tools/install-next-lane.test.sh` passes, including exact `@next` versions, immutable source fallback, source-build/archive-failure rollback, offline `--dev`, explicit refs, and prerelease suffix mismatch.
-- `bash tools/e2e-install-test.sh --lane next --source checkout --git present` returns the required expected RED in clean Debian/glibc as uid 1001: installer P0/P1/P2/P3/P7 PASS; P4/P5/P6/P8 and P9 blocking; no `Done.` claim; checkout archive digest pinned and current framework installer exercised.
+- `bash tools/e2e-install-test.sh --lane next --source checkout --git present` returns the required expected RED in clean Debian/glibc as uid 1001: installer P0/P1/P2/P3/P7 PASS; P4/P5/P6/P8 and P9 blocking; no `Done.` claim; checkout archive digest pinned and current framework installer exercised. `tools/verify-greenfield-expected-red.sh` converts that expected detector result into a green CI assertion and fails on any unreviewed verdict drift.
 - Earlier repository gates passed: `pnpm typecheck`, `pnpm lint`, `pnpm format:check`, `pnpm test:installer`, upgrade manifest/rollback/durable-snapshot/migration suites, and focused `@mosaicstack/mosaic` tests with an isolated npm prefix. Full rerun is required after final edits.