feat(agent-reflection): durable kernel — reflection.v1 capture + risk-floor + Phase-0 (#544)

Build the durable kernel of the agent reflection loop. Passive end-of-run
capture of the doer's end-state as structured `reflection.v1` data, plus a
deterministic diff review risk-floor. The closed calibration/skill-synthesis
loop (design §7–§8) stays gated behind Phase-0 experiments P1/P2/P3.

- packages/macp: evaluateRiskFloor (pure, deterministic surface classifier)
  + reflection.v1 JSON Schema; 15 unit tests.
- packages/types: reflection.v1 zod schemas + self-report DTO; 10 unit tests.
- framework: fail-closed Stop hook (reflect-stop-hook.sh) writing the sidecar,
  registered as hooks.Stop in runtime/claude/settings.json. Strict no-op unless
  REFLECTION_MODE=solo|orchestrated; never blocks or fails a session.
- scripts/analysis: P1/P2/P3 experiment harnesses with pre-registered kill
  conditions and structured output.

Mechanical fields (risk, files_changed, ids, provenance) are written by the
hook; self-report fields (confidence, most_likely_wrong, known_not_in_diff) are
merged from an optional $REFLECTION_INPUT, else null + provenance.degraded=true.

Independent review remediations: empty/all-.mosaic diff still writes a sidecar
(grep no-match no longer aborts); session_id sanitized before path use.

Refs #544

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

scripts/analysis/reflect-board-history.sh

@@ -0,0 +1,111 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+# reflect-board-history.sh — Phase-0 experiment P3 (outcome detectability)
+#
+# Question: for completed tasks, how often does a machine-detectable
+# correct/wrong outcome signal appear within a follow-up window (default 30d)?
+# If the base rate is too low, predicted-vs-actual calibration (design §7) has
+# nothing to score against, so the kernel should capture caveat-notes only.
+#
+# Method: consume a board/task export (JSONL, one task object per line) OR fall
+# back to scanning the git history of a `data/` task directory. For each task
+# that reached a "done"-like state, decide whether a later signal marks it
+# correct or wrong (reopen, revert, follow-up "fix"/"regression", explicit
+# outcome field). Emit the detectable-outcome base rate. HARNESS + RUBRIC.
+#
+# Usage:
+#   scripts/analysis/reflect-board-history.sh --jsonl FILE [--window-days N] [--json|--md]
+#   scripts/analysis/reflect-board-history.sh --data-dir DIR [--window-days N] [--json|--md]
+#
+# JSONL fields used (best-effort): .id .status .completed_at .outcome
+#   .reopened_at .followups[] (free-form). Missing fields are tolerated.
+#
+# Requirements: jq (for --jsonl), git (for --data-dir), awk.
+#
+# PRE-REGISTERED KILL CONDITION:
+#   detectable-outcome base rate < 20% ⇒ do NOT build §7 calibration loop;
+#   capture caveat-notes only.
+
+set -euo pipefail
+
+JSONL=""
+DATA_DIR=""
+WINDOW_DAYS=30
+FORMAT="json"
+
+while [[ $# -gt 0 ]]; do
+  case "$1" in
+    --jsonl) JSONL="$2"; shift 2 ;;
+    --data-dir) DATA_DIR="$2"; shift 2 ;;
+    --window-days) WINDOW_DAYS="$2"; shift 2 ;;
+    --json) FORMAT="json"; shift ;;
+    --md) FORMAT="md"; shift ;;
+    -h|--help) sed -n '2,32p' "$0"; exit 0 ;;
+    *) echo "unknown arg: $1" >&2; exit 2 ;;
+  esac
+done
+
+KILL_CONDITION='detectable-outcome base rate < 20% ⇒ do NOT build §7 calibration loop'
+echo "# pre-registered kill condition: ${KILL_CONDITION}" >&2
+
+done_total=0
+detectable=0
+
+if [[ -n "$JSONL" ]]; then
+  command -v jq >/dev/null 2>&1 || { echo "jq required for --jsonl" >&2; exit 3; }
+  [[ -r "$JSONL" ]] || { echo "cannot read $JSONL" >&2; exit 3; }
+  # Count done tasks and those with a machine-detectable outcome signal.
+  done_total="$(jq -rs '[.[] | select((.status // "") | test("done|complete|closed"; "i"))] | length' "$JSONL" 2>/dev/null || echo 0)"
+  detectable="$(jq -rs '
+    [ .[]
+      | select((.status // "") | test("done|complete|closed"; "i"))
+      | select(
+          (.outcome // null) != null
+          or (.reopened_at // null) != null
+          or ((.followups // []) | length) > 0
+        )
+    ] | length' "$JSONL" 2>/dev/null || echo 0)"
+elif [[ -n "$DATA_DIR" ]]; then
+  command -v git >/dev/null 2>&1 || { echo "git required for --data-dir" >&2; exit 3; }
+  [[ -d "$DATA_DIR" ]] || { echo "no such dir: $DATA_DIR" >&2; exit 3; }
+  # Proxy: a task file later touched by a commit whose subject signals a
+  # correction is a "detectable outcome".
+  while IFS= read -r file; do
+    [[ -z "$file" ]] && continue
+    done_total=$((done_total + 1))
+    if git -C "$DATA_DIR" log --since="${WINDOW_DAYS} days ago" --pretty='%s' -- "$file" 2>/dev/null \
+         | grep -qiE 'reopen|revert|fix|regression|wrong|incorrect|redo'; then
+      detectable=$((detectable + 1))
+    fi
+  done < <(find "$DATA_DIR" -type f -name '*.json' 2>/dev/null)
+else
+  echo "provide --jsonl FILE or --data-dir DIR" >&2
+  exit 2
+fi
+
+rate="$(awk "BEGIN{ if ($done_total==0) print \"0.0\"; else printf \"%.1f\", 100*$detectable/$done_total }")"
+verdict="$(awk "BEGIN{print ($rate < 20.0) ? \"KILL §7 — caveat-notes only\" : \"signal present — proceed\"}")"
+
+if [[ "$FORMAT" == "md" ]]; then
+  cat <<EOF
+## P3 — outcome detectability
+
+- done-like tasks: **${done_total}**
+- with machine-detectable outcome (window ${WINDOW_DAYS}d): **${detectable}**
+- base rate: **${rate}%**
+- kill condition: ${KILL_CONDITION}
+- verdict: **${verdict}**
+EOF
+else
+  awk -v dt="$done_total" -v d="$detectable" -v r="$rate" -v w="$WINDOW_DAYS" \
+      -v v="$verdict" -v kc="$KILL_CONDITION" 'BEGIN{
+    printf "{\n"
+    printf "  \"experiment\": \"P3-board-history\",\n"
+    printf "  \"window_days\": %d,\n", w
+    printf "  \"done_tasks\": %d,\n", dt
+    printf "  \"detectable_outcomes\": %d,\n", d
+    printf "  \"base_rate_pct\": %s,\n", r
+    printf "  \"kill_condition\": \"%s\",\n", kc
+    printf "  \"verdict\": \"%s\"\n", v
+    printf "}\n"
+  }'
+fi