test(fleet): name what the pane-boundary case's binary check rides on (#1241)

Review finding from scooby. This case does not use run_start, so
install_pane_binaries' symlinks land under a home its launcher never consults
(HOME is the trusted parent here). It resolves mosaic and pi through
MOSAIC_RUNTIME_BIN=$FAKE_BIN instead. Valid path, valid green — and a trap for
anyone who later drops that env var believing the symlinks cover it, which
would break the #1241 binary check rather than exercise it.

Comment only; no behavior change. Harness rc=0.

Refs #1241.

REPORT-A1207.md

@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
+# REPORT A1207
+
+Date: 2026-08-13
+Branch: `fix/869-lease-probe-timeout`
+Starting head: `2373a5ad345fb316ad2460f6390baab1f45ba08f`
+Base: `216cd72226cd9ee17eea461cfe7cd0e010a22f02`
+
+## What changed
+
+- Added Python behavior tests using isolated temporary directories and marker-writing fake `mosaic` executables. They prove that the supplied `PATH` wins over ambient `os.environ["PATH"]`, and that absent or empty supplied `PATH` values do not search ambient paths, platform defaults, or the current directory.
+- Bound Python override behavior with executable fakes: a valid `MOSAIC_LEASE_VERSION_PROBE_COMMAND` wins over supplied and ambient `PATH`; an invalid override returns `None` without PATH fallback.
+- Added a Python runner binding test that captures kwargs and requires `timeout=10.0`. Existing timeout, transport-error, and nonzero-exit checks remain fail-closed with `None`.
+- Added the optional TypeScript dependency-injection seam `CapabilityProbeExecFile`, defaulting to the existing real `execFileSync` implementation. Production callers have no behavior change.
+- Added TypeScript tests that capture child-process options and require exactly `timeout: 10_000`. Injected timeout, spawn-error, nonzero-exit, unparseable JSON, and malformed-object cases all return `null`.
+- Removed the ambient no-dependency TypeScript smoke case that could execute a built checkout's real CLI. Default resolver and supervisor behavior retain their isolated tests, while capability transport tests now use an isolated artifact or the injected transport.
+
+No Python production code changed relative to `2373a5ad`. The only production delta is the optional TypeScript child-process injection seam.
+
+## Hermeticity incident and correction
+
+An initial ambient-lookup mutation run exposed that the pre-existing Python "not resolvable" test left ambient process PATH uncontrolled. On this host, that mutation resolved and executed the host `mosaic` capability probe. A post-build intermediate TypeScript run also let the pre-existing no-dependency smoke case execute the checkout's built `dist/cli.js` capability probe. No `claude` process was run. I then isolated the Python test's ambient PATH, removed the TypeScript ambient smoke case, repeated the PATH mutation using only marker-writing temporary fakes, and repeated the final suites without either real probe path.
+
+## Mutation evidence
+
+Each mutation was applied independently, its focused suite was run, and the production source was restored before the final run.
+
+| Mutation                                                                                   | Result              | Reddened test name(s)                                                                                                                                                                                                      |
+| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
+| `shutil.which("mosaic", path=environ.get("PATH", ""))` to ambient `shutil.which("mosaic")` | RED, three failures | `ProbeActivationCapabilityTest.test_supplied_path_wins_over_ambient_process_path`; `ProbeActivationCapabilityTest.test_absent_or_empty_supplied_path_never_falls_back_or_executes` for both absent and empty PATH subtests |
+| Python `PROBE_TIMEOUT_SECONDS: 10.0` to `2.0`                                              | RED, one failure    | `ProbeActivationCapabilityTest.test_probe_passes_ten_second_timeout_to_runner`                                                                                                                                             |
+| TypeScript `LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_TIMEOUT_MS: 10_000` to `2_000`                          | RED, one failure    | `defaultCapabilityProbe > passes the exact ten-second timeout to the injected child-process transport`                                                                                                                     |
+
+## Final test run
+
+Dependencies were installed first with `pnpm install --frozen-lockfile`. Workspace dependencies were then built with `pnpm --filter '@mosaicstack/mosaic...' run build` so package type declarations were available.
+
+```text
+$ cd packages/mosaic && python3 src/mutator-gate/version_coupling_unittest.py
+...................
+----------------------------------------------------------------------
+Ran 19 tests in 0.007s
+
+OK
+
+$ pnpm exec vitest run src/commands/lease-activation-probe.spec.ts
+✓ src/commands/lease-activation-probe.spec.ts (20 tests) 80ms
+Test Files  1 passed (1)
+Tests       20 passed (20)
+```
+
+```text
+$ pnpm exec prettier --check packages/mosaic/src/commands/lease-activation-probe.ts packages/mosaic/src/commands/lease-activation-probe.spec.ts
+Checking formatting...
+All matched files use Prettier code style!
+
+$ pnpm --filter @mosaicstack/mosaic lint
+> eslint src
+
+$ pnpm --filter @mosaicstack/mosaic typecheck
+> tsc --noEmit
+
+$ python3 -m py_compile packages/mosaic/src/mutator-gate/version_coupling_unittest.py packages/mosaic/framework/tools/lease-broker/activation_version_gate.py
+
+$ git diff --check
+```
+
+All commands above exited zero.
+
+## Ambiguities skipped
+
+None.

packages/mosaic/framework/systemd/user/test-fleet-units.sh

@@ -128,6 +128,14 @@ EOF
 sleep 30
 EOF
   chmod 700 "$AGENT_BIN/mosaic"
+  # The launcher resolves the roster's runtime against PANE_PATH before it
+  # spawns anything (#1241), so the runtime this projection names has to be
+  # present here even though the fake `mosaic` above never execs it.
+  cat > "$AGENT_BIN/pi" <<'EOF'
+#!/bin/sh
+sleep 30
+EOF
+  chmod 700 "$AGENT_BIN/pi"
   server_environment_before=$(tmux -L "$TEST_SOCKET" show-environment -g | sort)
   server_sessions_before=$(tmux -L "$TEST_SOCKET" list-sessions | sort)
   if /usr/bin/env -i HOME="$HOLDER_HOME" PATH=/usr/bin:/bin MOSAIC_HOME="$AGENT_HOME" \

packages/mosaic/framework/tools/fleet/start-agent-session.sh

@@ -286,6 +286,36 @@ _build_runtime_bin_prefix() {
 MOSAIC_RUNTIME_BIN_PREFIX=$(_build_runtime_bin_prefix)
 PANE_PATH=${MOSAIC_RUNTIME_BIN_PREFIX:+${MOSAIC_RUNTIME_BIN_PREFIX}:}/usr/local/bin:/usr/bin:/bin
 
+# #1241. The pane runs `mosaic yolo <runtime>` under PANE_PATH with a cleared
+# environment. A binary missing from *that* path is a pane that dies in under a
+# second, inside a session nobody is attached to, with its diagnostic scrolled
+# into a pane tmux then destroys. Resolve both here, before any effect, where
+# the failure is still attributable to the thing that caused it.
+#
+# `mosaic yolo <runtime>` runs checkRuntime(runtime) and the binary it looks for
+# is named exactly like the runtime, so resolving the runtime name is the same
+# question the pane will ask a moment later — asked while an operator can still
+# see the answer.
+_resolve_in_pane_path() {
+  PATH="$PANE_PATH" command -v -- "$1" 2>/dev/null
+}
+
+# Exit 69 (EX_UNAVAILABLE): the seat cannot be provided. Distinguished from the
+# 64 (EX_USAGE) rejections above, which mean the projection itself was bad —
+# here the data is fine and the host is not ready. Callers tell the individual
+# cases apart by `code=`, the same way fail_env's many codes share exit 64.
+fail_launch() {
+  local code="$1"
+  shift
+  echo "ERROR: agent launch aborted: code=${code} agent=${AGENT_NAME} $*" >&2
+  exit 69
+}
+
+for required_binary in mosaic "$MOSAIC_AGENT_RUNTIME"; do
+  _resolve_in_pane_path "$required_binary" >/dev/null ||
+    fail_launch missing-binary "'${required_binary}' is not on the pane PATH (${PANE_PATH})"
+done
+
 _ensure_claude_workdir_trusted() {
   local workdir="$1"
   local resolved
@@ -384,6 +414,19 @@ if [ -n "$PANE_PID" ]; then
   _start_heartbeat_sidecar "$AGENT_NAME" "$PANE_PID" \
     "$MOSAIC_HEARTBEAT_RUN_DIR" "$MOSAIC_HEARTBEAT_INTERVAL" || \
     echo "WARNING: heartbeat sidecar could not be started for $AGENT_NAME" >&2
+elif _tmux has-session -t "=${AGENT_NAME}:0.0" 2>/dev/null; then
+  # #1241. Session present, no pane PID after a second of retries. Whatever this
+  # is, it is not a seat an operator can use, so it is not a success either.
+  fail_launch pane-pid-unresolved \
+    "tmux reports the session but no pane PID after 5 attempts"
 else
-  echo "WARNING: could not resolve pane PID for $AGENT_NAME — heartbeat sidecar not started" >&2
+  # #1241. This branch used to print a WARNING about the heartbeat sidecar and
+  # exit 0. It is not a heartbeat problem: tmux destroys a session when its pane
+  # command exits, so an absent session one second after new-session means the
+  # runtime died on startup. Reporting it as success is what let `fleet start`
+  # return 0 over three dead panes — the launcher knew, and said the wrong thing
+  # at the wrong severity to the wrong layer.
+  fail_launch pane-did-not-survive \
+    "the pane exited immediately and tmux destroyed the session;" \
+    "run 'mosaic yolo ${MOSAIC_AGENT_RUNTIME}' in ${MOSAIC_AGENT_WORKDIR} to see why"
 fi

packages/mosaic/framework/tools/fleet/test-start-agent-session.sh

@@ -23,8 +23,26 @@ index=0
 if [ "${args[0]:-}" = -L ]; then index=2; fi
 case "${args[$index]:-}" in
   has-session)
+    # The holder always answers. MOSAIC_TEST_HELD_SESSIONS lets a case add
+    # other targets that should answer too — without it there is no way to
+    # model "tmux still reports the session" for a non-holder agent, and the
+    # launcher's pane-pid-unresolved branch is unreachable from this harness.
+    #
+    # A listed target answers only AFTER new-session, because the launcher asks
+    # this question twice about the same name: once before launching, where a
+    # yes means "already running, nothing to do, exit 0", and once after, where
+    # a yes means "the session survived". A shim that answered yes to both
+    # would short-circuit at the first and never reach the branch under test —
+    # it would look like coverage and measure the idempotency path instead.
     for argument in "${args[@]}"; do
       [ "$argument" = '=_holder:0.0' ] && exit 0
+      case " ${MOSAIC_TEST_HELD_SESSIONS:-} " in
+        *" $argument "*)
+          if tr '\0' '\n' < "${MOSAIC_TEST_TMUX_CALLS:?}" | grep -qxF new-session; then
+            exit 0
+          fi
+          ;;
+      esac
     done
     exit 1
     ;;
@@ -62,6 +80,30 @@ env -0 > "${MOSAIC_HOME:?}/fleet/pane-environment"
 SHIM
 chmod +x "$FAKE_BIN/mosaic"
 
+# The runtime the rosters below name. The launcher resolves it against PANE_PATH
+# before spawning (#1241), so it has to exist somewhere the pane would find it —
+# not merely on the launcher's own PATH.
+printf '#!/usr/bin/env bash\nexit 0\n' > "$FAKE_BIN/pi"
+chmod +x "$FAKE_BIN/pi"
+
+# PANE_PATH is derived partly from `npm config get prefix`. Left to the real npm
+# it would splice whatever the host has installed into the path under test, and
+# the missing-binary cases below would pass or fail by accident of the machine.
+cat > "$FAKE_BIN/npm" <<'SHIM'
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+printf '%s\n' "${MOSAIC_TEST_NPM_PREFIX:-/nonexistent}"
+SHIM
+chmod +x "$FAKE_BIN/npm"
+
+# PANE_PATH always ends in the system path. A host that installs these there can
+# not measure the missing-binary cases at all, and a green run would mean
+# nothing — so say so instead of passing.
+for host_binary in mosaic pi; do
+  if PATH=/usr/local/bin:/usr/bin:/bin command -v "$host_binary" >/dev/null 2>&1; then
+    fail "host provides '$host_binary' in the system path; missing-binary cases are not measurable here"
+  fi
+done
+
 write_generated() {
   local home="$1"
   local agent="$2"
@@ -81,6 +123,19 @@ MOSAIC_TMUX_SOCKET=mosaic-test
 EOF
   chmod 600 "$home/fleet/agents/$agent.env.generated"
   mkdir -p "$home/work"
+  install_pane_binaries "$home"
+}
+
+# `$PANE_HOME/.npm-global/bin` is one of the prefixes the launcher folds into
+# PANE_PATH, so this is the pane's own view of "installed", distinct from the
+# launcher's PATH. Tests that need a binary *absent* remove it from here.
+install_pane_binaries() {
+  local pane_home="$1"
+  mkdir -p "$pane_home/.npm-global/bin"
+  local binary
+  for binary in mosaic pi; do
+    ln -sf "$FAKE_BIN/$binary" "$pane_home/.npm-global/bin/$binary"
+  done
 }
 
 run_start() {
@@ -88,6 +143,7 @@ run_start() {
   local agent="$2"
   HOME="$home" PATH="$FAKE_BIN:$PATH" MOSAIC_TEST_TMUX_CALLS="$TMUX_CALLS" \
     MOSAIC_TEST_PANE_PID="${MOSAIC_TEST_PANE_PID:-}" \
+    MOSAIC_TEST_HELD_SESSIONS="${MOSAIC_TEST_HELD_SESSIONS:-}" \
     MOSAIC_TEST_HOME="$home" \
     MOSAIC_TEST_FLEET_OWNER=123e4567-e89b-12d3-a456-426614174000 \
     MOSAIC_HOME="$home" "$START" "$agent"
@@ -98,7 +154,10 @@ run_start() {
 HOME_VALID="$ROOT/valid"
 AGENT_VALID="coder0"
 write_generated "$HOME_VALID" "$AGENT_VALID"
-run_start "$HOME_VALID" "$AGENT_VALID"
+# A live pane PID is part of what "valid launch" means. Until #1241 this case
+# ran with none, so the suite's one success path was itself a dead pane the
+# launcher reported as fine.
+MOSAIC_TEST_PANE_PID=$$ run_start "$HOME_VALID" "$AGENT_VALID"
 valid_args=$(tr '\0' '\n' < "$TMUX_CALLS")
 echo "$valid_args" | grep -qF new-session || fail "valid generated projection did not reach tmux"
 echo "$valid_args" | grep -qF 'mosaic' || fail "fixed mosaic launcher command missing"
@@ -245,6 +304,13 @@ PANE_BASH_ENV="$ROOT/pane-boundary.bash-env"
 printf 'MOSAIC_RUNTIME_BIN=%s\n' "$FAKE_BIN" > \
   "$HOME_PANE_BOUNDARY/fleet/agents/coder-pane-boundary.env.local"
 chmod 600 "$HOME_PANE_BOUNDARY/fleet/agents/coder-pane-boundary.env.local"
+# This case does not go through run_start, so its pane binaries come from
+# MOSAIC_RUNTIME_BIN=$FAKE_BIN in the env.local written above — not from the
+# symlinks install_pane_binaries planted under the generated home, which this
+# launcher never consults because HOME here is the trusted parent. That is a
+# legitimate resolution path, but it means dropping MOSAIC_RUNTIME_BIN from
+# this case on the belief that the symlinks cover it would break the #1241
+# binary check rather than exercise it.
 LD_PRELOAD='/not/loaded/by-clean-bootstrap.so' \
 BASH_ENV="$PANE_BASH_ENV" \
 MOSAIC_UNTRUSTED_SENTINEL='must-not-reach-pane' \
@@ -258,6 +324,7 @@ PATH="$PANE_STALE_PATH" \
     "MOSAIC_TEST_HOME=$PANE_TRUSTED_HOME" \
     MOSAIC_TEST_FLEET_OWNER=123e4567-e89b-12d3-a456-426614174000 \
     MOSAIC_TEST_EXECUTE_PANE=1 \
+    "MOSAIC_TEST_PANE_PID=$$" \
     "$START" coder-pane-boundary
 pane_args=$(tr '\0' '\n' < "$TMUX_CALLS")
 echo "$pane_args" | grep -qxF "HOME=$PANE_TRUSTED_HOME" || \
@@ -392,6 +459,75 @@ echo "$interaction_policy_args" | grep -qF 'new-session' && \
 echo "$output" | grep -qF 'operator interaction service requires runtime pi' || \
   fail "interaction pinned-policy check did not follow strict parsing"
 
+# #1241. The pane runs `mosaic yolo <runtime>` against PANE_PATH. A binary
+# missing from that path is a launch failure, and it has to be named before the
+# session is created — after it, the diagnostic dies with the pane.
+assert_missing_pane_binary_rejected() {
+  local binary="$1"
+  local home="$ROOT/missing-$binary"
+  local agent="coder-missing-$binary"
+  write_generated "$home" "$agent"
+  rm -f "$home/.npm-global/bin/$binary"
+
+  : > "$TMUX_CALLS"
+  local output
+  if output=$(MOSAIC_TEST_PANE_PID=$$ run_start "$home" "$agent" 2>&1); then
+    fail "launch succeeded with '$binary' absent from the pane PATH"
+  fi
+  echo "$output" | grep -qF 'code=missing-binary' || fail "missing '$binary' diagnostic missing"
+  echo "$output" | grep -qF "'$binary'" || fail "missing-binary diagnostic did not name $binary"
+  if tr '\0' '\n' < "$TMUX_CALLS" | grep -qF new-session; then
+    fail "launcher created a session it knew would die ($binary absent)"
+  fi
+}
+
+assert_missing_pane_binary_rejected mosaic
+assert_missing_pane_binary_rejected pi
+
+# #1241. tmux destroys a session when its pane command exits, so no pane PID a
+# second after new-session means the runtime died on startup. This used to be a
+# WARNING about the heartbeat sidecar followed by exit 0 — three layers above it
+# then reported a fleet that was not running.
+: > "$TMUX_CALLS"
+HOME_DEAD_PANE="$ROOT/dead-pane"
+write_generated "$HOME_DEAD_PANE" "coder-dead-pane"
+if output=$(MOSAIC_TEST_PANE_PID='' run_start "$HOME_DEAD_PANE" coder-dead-pane 2>&1); then
+  fail "launcher reported success over a pane that did not survive"
+fi
+echo "$output" | grep -qF 'code=pane-did-not-survive' || fail "dead-pane diagnostic missing"
+if echo "$output" | grep -qiF 'heartbeat'; then
+  fail "dead pane is still being reported as a heartbeat-sidecar problem"
+fi
+tr '\0' '\n' < "$TMUX_CALLS" | grep -qF new-session || \
+  fail "dead-pane case did not reach the launch it is measuring"
+
+# #1241, the other way a pane fails. Above, tmux destroyed the session and
+# has-session said so. Here the session is still there and no PID comes back
+# after the retries — a different fault (the pane is alive but unusable, or
+# tmux is answering inconsistently) that an operator has to be told apart from
+# a runtime that died on startup.
+#
+# This case exists because the branch that handles it shipped with nothing able
+# to reach it: the shim answered has-session only for the holder, so every
+# non-holder agent landed in the session-is-gone branch no matter what. A
+# defensive branch nothing exercises is the same shape as the bug this whole
+# change is about, one layer down.
+: > "$TMUX_CALLS"
+HOME_NO_PID="$ROOT/pane-no-pid"
+write_generated "$HOME_NO_PID" "coder-no-pid"
+if output=$(MOSAIC_TEST_PANE_PID='' MOSAIC_TEST_HELD_SESSIONS='=coder-no-pid:0.0' \
+  run_start "$HOME_NO_PID" coder-no-pid 2>&1); then
+  fail "launcher reported success over a session with no resolvable pane PID"
+fi
+echo "$output" | grep -qF 'code=pane-pid-unresolved' || \
+  fail "session-present/no-PID was not reported as pane-pid-unresolved: $output"
+if echo "$output" | grep -qF 'code=pane-did-not-survive'; then
+  fail "a session tmux still reports was diagnosed as a destroyed session"
+fi
+if echo "$output" | grep -qiF 'heartbeat'; then
+  fail "an unresolvable pane PID is still being reported as a heartbeat-sidecar problem"
+fi
+
 # Exact stop derives the socket exclusively from the validated generated
 # projection and ignores an ambient socket supplied by the caller.
 : > "$TMUX_CALLS"

packages/mosaic/framework/tools/lease-broker/activation_version_gate.py

@@ -62,7 +62,14 @@ EXPECTED_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY: Final[ActivationCapability] = {
 # capability as compact JSON.
 LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_COMMAND: Final = "__lease-capability"
 
-PROBE_TIMEOUT_SECONDS: Final = 2.0
+# Budget for the out-of-process `mosaic __lease-capability` probe. The CLI
+# is a Node program whose cold start alone measures 2.2-2.3s on a mid-range
+# workstation (sb-it-1-dt, 2026-08-13), so a 2s budget made every launch on
+# such hosts fail closed with the #869 skew message even though the
+# capability matched. The timeout only bounds the pathological hang case —
+# the happy path returns as soon as the probe exits — so a generous budget
+# costs nothing on healthy hosts.
+PROBE_TIMEOUT_SECONDS: Final = 10.0
 
 # Override hook: a full shell-style command line (parsed with `shlex.split`)
 # to run INSTEAD of resolving `mosaic` on PATH and appending the probe
@@ -88,7 +95,13 @@ def _resolve_probe_command(environ: Mapping[str, str]) -> list[str] | None:
     if override:
         parsed = shlex.split(override)
         return parsed or None
-    resolved = shutil.which("mosaic")
+    # Resolve against the PROVIDED environment's PATH, not the ambient
+    # os.environ. Before this, a test passing a hermetic environ still
+    # resolved (and spawned) the host's real `mosaic` — masked only on hosts
+    # where the real probe happened to exceed the old 2s timeout. No PATH in
+    # the provided environment means nothing is resolvable (fail-closed),
+    # matching the probe's overall contract.
+    resolved = shutil.which("mosaic", path=environ.get("PATH", ""))
     if resolved is None:
         return None
     return [resolved, LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_COMMAND]

packages/mosaic/src/commands/lease-activation-probe.spec.ts

@@ -7,11 +7,13 @@ import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url';
 import {
   LEASE_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY,
   LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_COMMAND,
+  LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_TIMEOUT_MS,
   defaultCapabilityProbe,
   defaultResolveCliEntry,
   defaultSupervisorProbe,
   leaseEnforcementActivatable,
   registerLeaseCapabilityProbe,
+  type CapabilityProbeExecFile,
   type LeaseActivationCapability,
   type SupervisorProbeResult,
 } from './lease-activation-probe.js';
@@ -35,6 +37,17 @@ const presentSupervisor: SupervisorProbeResult = {
   socketPath: '/run/user/1000/mosaic-lease/broker.sock',
 };
 
+function withScratchCli<T>(run: (cliPath: string) => T): T {
+  const scratchDir = mkdtempSync(join(tmpdir(), 'mosaic-lease-capability-probe-'));
+  try {
+    const cliPath = join(scratchDir, 'cli.js');
+    writeFileSync(cliPath, '// isolated fake; injected execFile means this is never executed\n');
+    return run(cliPath);
+  } finally {
+    rmSync(scratchDir, { recursive: true, force: true });
+  }
+}
+
 describe('leaseEnforcementActivatable', () => {
   it('is false when the activation capability is absent (null)', () => {
     const result = leaseEnforcementActivatable({
@@ -100,15 +113,6 @@ describe('leaseEnforcementActivatable', () => {
     });
     expect(result).toBe(true);
   });
-
-  it('uses the real default probes when no deps are injected (does not throw)', () => {
-    // No live broker / built CLI is guaranteed in a test environment, so this
-    // only asserts the predicate degrades to a safe boolean rather than
-    // throwing — the fail-closed behavior itself is covered by the injected
-    // cases above.
-    expect(() => leaseEnforcementActivatable()).not.toThrow();
-    expect(typeof leaseEnforcementActivatable()).toBe('boolean');
-  });
 });
 
 describe('defaultCapabilityProbe', () => {
@@ -127,6 +131,61 @@ describe('defaultCapabilityProbe', () => {
     expect(result).toBeNull();
   });
 
+  it('passes the exact ten-second timeout to the injected child-process transport', () => {
+    withScratchCli((cliPath) => {
+      let captured:
+        | {
+            file: string;
+            args: string[];
+            options: Parameters<CapabilityProbeExecFile>[2];
+          }
+        | undefined;
+      const execFile: CapabilityProbeExecFile = (file, args, options) => {
+        captured = { file, args, options };
+        return JSON.stringify(LEASE_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY);
+      };
+
+      const result = defaultCapabilityProbe({ resolveCliEntry: () => cliPath, execFile });
+
+      expect(result).toEqual(LEASE_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY);
+      expect(captured).toEqual({
+        file: process.execPath,
+        args: [cliPath, LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_COMMAND],
+        options: {
+          encoding: 'utf-8',
+          timeout: 10_000,
+          stdio: ['ignore', 'pipe', 'ignore'],
+        },
+      });
+      expect(captured?.options.timeout).toBe(LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_TIMEOUT_MS);
+    });
+  });
+
+  it.each([
+    ['timeout', Object.assign(new Error('timed out'), { code: 'ETIMEDOUT' })],
+    ['spawn error', Object.assign(new Error('spawn failed'), { code: 'ENOENT' })],
+    ['nonzero exit', Object.assign(new Error('child exited 1'), { status: 1 })],
+  ])('returns null (fail-closed) on child-process %s', (_failure, error) => {
+    withScratchCli((cliPath) => {
+      const execFile: CapabilityProbeExecFile = () => {
+        throw error;
+      };
+
+      expect(defaultCapabilityProbe({ resolveCliEntry: () => cliPath, execFile })).toBeNull();
+    });
+  });
+
+  it.each([
+    ['unparseable JSON', 'not-json'],
+    ['malformed object', JSON.stringify({ name: LEASE_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY.name })],
+  ])('returns null (fail-closed) on %s output', (_failure, output) => {
+    withScratchCli((cliPath) => {
+      const execFile: CapabilityProbeExecFile = () => output;
+
+      expect(defaultCapabilityProbe({ resolveCliEntry: () => cliPath, execFile })).toBeNull();
+    });
+  });
+
   describe('positive path — injected resolver, isolated scratch dir (never the real dist/)', () => {
     // A prior version of this test staged the stub cli.js at the package's
     // REAL resolved dist/ path and relied on afterEach to clean up "only

packages/mosaic/src/commands/lease-activation-probe.ts

@@ -55,6 +55,19 @@ export const LEASE_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY: LeaseActivationCapability = {
 /** Hidden CLI probe subcommand name — wired via {@link registerLeaseCapabilityProbe}. */
 export const LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_COMMAND = '__lease-capability';
 
+/**
+ * Budget for the out-of-process capability probe. The probe launches a fresh
+ * Node process on the built CLI entrypoint, whose cold start alone measures
+ * 2.2-2.3s on a mid-range workstation (sb-it-1-dt, 2026-08-13) — so the
+ * previous 2s budget made the probe time out and report NO capability on
+ * such hosts, failing every launch with the #869 skew message even though
+ * the capability matched. The timeout only bounds the pathological hang
+ * case; the happy path returns as soon as the probe exits. Mirrors
+ * PROBE_TIMEOUT_SECONDS in the enforcement half
+ * (framework/tools/lease-broker/activation_version_gate.py).
+ */
+export const LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_TIMEOUT_MS = 10_000;
+
 function capabilityMatches(candidate: LeaseActivationCapability | null): boolean {
   return (
     candidate !== null &&
@@ -110,12 +123,28 @@ export function defaultResolveCliEntry(
   return join(dirname(mainEntry), 'cli.js');
 }
 
+/** Narrow injectable seam for the synchronous child process used by the
+ * capability probe. */
+export type CapabilityProbeExecFile = (
+  file: string,
+  args: string[],
+  options: {
+    encoding: BufferEncoding;
+    timeout: number;
+    stdio: ['ignore', 'pipe', 'ignore'];
+  },
+) => string;
+
 /** Injectable inputs for {@link defaultCapabilityProbe}. */
 export interface CapabilityProbeDeps {
   /** Resolve the CLI entrypoint (`cli.js`) to probe. Defaults to
    * {@link defaultResolveCliEntry}. Inject to point at an isolated scratch
    * location in tests — never at the real package's `dist/`. */
   resolveCliEntry?: () => string;
+  /** Execute the resolved CLI entrypoint. Defaults to the real
+   * `execFileSync`. Inject so transport behavior and options can be tested
+   * without spawning a process. */
+  execFile?: CapabilityProbeExecFile;
 }
 
 /**
@@ -139,9 +168,10 @@ export function defaultCapabilityProbe(
     const cliEntry = resolveCliEntry();
     if (!existsSync(cliEntry)) return null;
 
-    const output = execFileSync(process.execPath, [cliEntry, LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_COMMAND], {
+    const execFile: CapabilityProbeExecFile = deps.execFile ?? execFileSync;
+    const output = execFile(process.execPath, [cliEntry, LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_COMMAND], {
       encoding: 'utf-8',
-      timeout: 2000,
+      timeout: LEASE_CAPABILITY_PROBE_TIMEOUT_MS,
       stdio: ['ignore', 'pipe', 'ignore'],
     });
 

packages/mosaic/src/mutator-gate/version_coupling_unittest.py

@@ -24,11 +24,15 @@ from __future__ import annotations
 
 import importlib.util
 import io
+import os
+import shlex
 import subprocess
 import sys
+import tempfile
 import unittest
 from contextlib import redirect_stderr
 from pathlib import Path
+from unittest import mock
 
 
 TOOLS_DIR = Path(__file__).parents[2] / "framework/tools/lease-broker"
@@ -57,6 +61,20 @@ def matching_capability() -> dict[str, object]:
     return dict(VERSION_GATE.EXPECTED_ACTIVATION_CAPABILITY)
 
 
+def write_fake_mosaic(directory: Path, marker: Path) -> Path:
+    directory.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    executable = directory / "mosaic"
+    executable.write_text(
+        "#!/bin/sh\n"
+        f"printf '%s\\n' executed >> {shlex.quote(str(marker))}\n"
+        "printf '%s\\n' "
+        "'{\"name\":\"lease-runtime-activation\",\"version\":1}'\n",
+        encoding="utf-8",
+    )
+    executable.chmod(0o755)
+    return executable
+
+
 class AssertActivationCapabilityMatchesTest(unittest.TestCase):
     """Unit-level coverage of `activation_version_gate.py`'s own assertion,
     isolated from the launch-runtime.py seam it is wired into below."""
@@ -110,11 +128,102 @@ class ProbeActivationCapabilityTest(unittest.TestCase):
     handling — never spawns a real `mosaic` process."""
 
     def test_returns_none_when_mosaic_is_not_resolvable_on_path(self) -> None:
-        result = VERSION_GATE.default_probe_activation_capability(
-            {"PATH": "/nonexistent-bin-dir-for-869-c4-test"}
-        )
+        # Keep even a deliberate ambient-lookup mutation away from any host
+        # installation. The dedicated hermeticity tests below provide fake
+        # ambient executables and markers.
+        with mock.patch.dict(
+            os.environ, {"PATH": "/nonexistent-ambient-bin-dir-for-869-c4-test"}
+        ):
+            result = VERSION_GATE.default_probe_activation_capability(
+                {"PATH": "/nonexistent-bin-dir-for-869-c4-test"}
+            )
         self.assertIsNone(result)
 
+    def test_supplied_path_wins_over_ambient_process_path(self) -> None:
+        with tempfile.TemporaryDirectory() as temporary:
+            root = Path(temporary)
+            supplied_marker = root / "supplied.marker"
+            ambient_marker = root / "ambient.marker"
+            supplied_bin = root / "supplied-bin"
+            ambient_bin = root / "ambient-bin"
+            write_fake_mosaic(supplied_bin, supplied_marker)
+            write_fake_mosaic(ambient_bin, ambient_marker)
+
+            with mock.patch.dict(os.environ, {"PATH": str(ambient_bin)}):
+                result = VERSION_GATE.default_probe_activation_capability(
+                    {"PATH": str(supplied_bin)}
+                )
+
+            self.assertEqual(result, matching_capability())
+            self.assertTrue(supplied_marker.exists())
+            self.assertFalse(ambient_marker.exists())
+
+    def test_absent_or_empty_supplied_path_never_falls_back_or_executes(self) -> None:
+        with tempfile.TemporaryDirectory() as temporary:
+            root = Path(temporary)
+            ambient_marker = root / "ambient.marker"
+            current_directory_marker = root / "current-directory.marker"
+            ambient_bin = root / "ambient-bin"
+            current_directory = root / "current-directory"
+            write_fake_mosaic(ambient_bin, ambient_marker)
+            write_fake_mosaic(current_directory, current_directory_marker)
+            original_directory = Path.cwd()
+
+            try:
+                os.chdir(current_directory)
+                with mock.patch.dict(os.environ, {"PATH": str(ambient_bin)}):
+                    for supplied_environment in ({}, {"PATH": ""}):
+                        with self.subTest(environ=supplied_environment):
+                            result = VERSION_GATE.default_probe_activation_capability(
+                                supplied_environment
+                            )
+                            self.assertIsNone(result)
+                            self.assertFalse(ambient_marker.exists())
+                            self.assertFalse(current_directory_marker.exists())
+            finally:
+                os.chdir(original_directory)
+
+    def test_valid_override_wins_and_invalid_override_does_not_fall_back_to_path(
+        self,
+    ) -> None:
+        with tempfile.TemporaryDirectory() as temporary:
+            root = Path(temporary)
+            supplied_marker = root / "supplied.marker"
+            ambient_marker = root / "ambient.marker"
+            override_marker = root / "override.marker"
+            supplied_bin = root / "supplied-bin"
+            ambient_bin = root / "ambient-bin"
+            override_bin = root / "override-bin"
+            write_fake_mosaic(supplied_bin, supplied_marker)
+            write_fake_mosaic(ambient_bin, ambient_marker)
+            override_executable = write_fake_mosaic(override_bin, override_marker)
+
+            with mock.patch.dict(os.environ, {"PATH": str(ambient_bin)}):
+                result = VERSION_GATE.default_probe_activation_capability(
+                    {
+                        "PATH": str(supplied_bin),
+                        VERSION_GATE.MOSAIC_COMMAND_OVERRIDE_VAR: str(override_executable),
+                    }
+                )
+                self.assertEqual(result, matching_capability())
+                self.assertTrue(override_marker.exists())
+                self.assertFalse(supplied_marker.exists())
+                self.assertFalse(ambient_marker.exists())
+
+                override_marker.unlink()
+                result = VERSION_GATE.default_probe_activation_capability(
+                    {
+                        "PATH": str(supplied_bin),
+                        VERSION_GATE.MOSAIC_COMMAND_OVERRIDE_VAR: str(
+                            root / "invalid-override" / "mosaic"
+                        ),
+                    }
+                )
+                self.assertIsNone(result)
+                self.assertFalse(override_marker.exists())
+                self.assertFalse(supplied_marker.exists())
+                self.assertFalse(ambient_marker.exists())
+
     def test_override_command_is_parsed_and_the_probe_subcommand_is_not_double_appended(
         self,
     ) -> None:
@@ -135,6 +244,29 @@ class ProbeActivationCapabilityTest(unittest.TestCase):
         self.assertEqual(result, {"name": "lease-runtime-activation", "version": 1})
         self.assertEqual(captured, [["/fake/mosaic", "__lease-capability"]])
 
+    def test_probe_passes_ten_second_timeout_to_runner(self) -> None:
+        captured_argv: list[str] = []
+        captured_kwargs: dict[str, object] = {}
+
+        class FakeCompleted:
+            returncode = 0
+            stdout = '{"name": "lease-runtime-activation", "version": 1}'
+
+        def fake_run(argv: list[str], **kwargs: object) -> FakeCompleted:
+            captured_argv.extend(argv)
+            captured_kwargs.update(kwargs)
+            return FakeCompleted()
+
+        result = VERSION_GATE.default_probe_activation_capability(
+            {VERSION_GATE.MOSAIC_COMMAND_OVERRIDE_VAR: "/fake/mosaic"},
+            run=fake_run,
+        )
+
+        self.assertEqual(result, matching_capability())
+        self.assertEqual(captured_argv, ["/fake/mosaic"])
+        self.assertEqual(captured_kwargs["timeout"], 10.0)
+        self.assertEqual(captured_kwargs["check"], False)
+
     def test_fails_closed_on_nonzero_exit_malformed_json_and_missing_fields(self) -> None:
         class NonZeroExit:
             returncode = 1
@@ -174,7 +306,7 @@ class ProbeActivationCapabilityTest(unittest.TestCase):
 
     def test_fails_closed_on_timeout_and_transport_error(self) -> None:
         def timeout_run(*_args: object, **_kwargs: object) -> None:
-            raise subprocess.TimeoutExpired(cmd="mosaic", timeout=2.0)
+            raise subprocess.TimeoutExpired(cmd="mosaic", timeout=10.0)
 
         def oserror_run(*_args: object, **_kwargs: object) -> None:
             raise OSError("no such file or directory")