118 lines
4.4 KiB
Bash
Executable File
118 lines
4.4 KiB
Bash
Executable File
#!/usr/bin/env bash
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# reflect-calibration.sh — Phase-0 experiment P1 (confidence signal)
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#
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# Question: does an agent's self-reported confidence discriminate correct from
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# incorrect work — especially on the self-rated-HIGH subset, where a closed
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# loop would actually trust it? If confidence ≈ chance on the high subset, the
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# signal is useless and design §7–§8 should not be built.
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#
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# Method: consume a labelled corpus — JSONL of {confidence: 0..1, correct:
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# true|false}. Compute discrimination as ROC AUC over all rows, plus the
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# correct-rate (lift) on the high-confidence subset (>= threshold), and compare
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# to the pre-registered chance baseline (the overall correct-rate). HARNESS +
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# RUBRIC; the labelled corpus is supplied later.
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#
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# Usage:
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# scripts/analysis/reflect-calibration.sh --jsonl FILE [--high 0.8] [--json|--md]
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#
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# Requirements: jq, awk.
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#
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# PRE-REGISTERED KILL CONDITION:
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# AUC <= 0.60 OR high-subset lift <= +5pp over base rate
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# ⇒ confidence is not a usable routing signal; do NOT build §7–§8.
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set -euo pipefail
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JSONL=""
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HIGH=0.8
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FORMAT="json"
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while [[ $# -gt 0 ]]; do
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case "$1" in
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--jsonl) JSONL="$2"; shift 2 ;;
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--high) HIGH="$2"; shift 2 ;;
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--json) FORMAT="json"; shift ;;
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--md) FORMAT="md"; shift ;;
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-h|--help) sed -n '2,27p' "$0"; exit 0 ;;
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*) echo "unknown arg: $1" >&2; exit 2 ;;
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esac
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done
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KILL_CONDITION='AUC <= 0.60 OR high-subset lift <= +5pp ⇒ do NOT build §7–§8'
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echo "# pre-registered kill condition: ${KILL_CONDITION}" >&2
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command -v jq >/dev/null 2>&1 || { echo "jq required" >&2; exit 3; }
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[[ -r "$JSONL" ]] || { echo "provide a readable --jsonl FILE" >&2; exit 2; }
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# Normalise to "<confidence> <0|1>" rows; tolerate bad lines.
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ROWS="$(jq -rs '
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[ .[] | select((.confidence|type)=="number") |
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"\(.confidence) \((.correct==true) | if . then 1 else 0 end)" ]
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| .[]' "$JSONL" 2>/dev/null || true)"
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if [[ -z "$ROWS" ]]; then
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echo '{ "experiment": "P1-calibration", "error": "no usable rows" }'
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exit 0
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fi
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# AUC via the Mann–Whitney U relation (rank-based); base rate; high-subset lift.
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read -r N POS BASE AUC HIGH_N HIGH_CORRECT HIGH_RATE LIFT <<EOF
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$(printf '%s\n' "$ROWS" | awk -v high="$HIGH" '
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{ c=$1; y=$2; conf[NR]=c; lab[NR]=y; n++;
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if (y==1) pos++; else neg++;
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if (c>=high) { hn++; if (y==1) hc++ } }
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END{
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base = (n>0)? pos/n : 0;
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# Rank-sum AUC: average ranks (ties → average rank).
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# sort indices by confidence
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for (i=1;i<=n;i++) idx[i]=i;
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for (i=1;i<=n;i++) for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) if (conf[idx[i]]>conf[idx[j]]) { t=idx[i]; idx[i]=idx[j]; idx[j]=t }
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i=1;
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while (i<=n) {
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j=i; while (j<n && conf[idx[j+1]]==conf[idx[i]]) j++;
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avg=(i+j)/2.0;
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for (k=i;k<=j;k++) rank[idx[k]]=avg;
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i=j+1;
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}
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rsum=0; for (i=1;i<=n;i++) if (lab[i]==1) rsum+=rank[i];
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if (pos>0 && neg>0) auc=(rsum - pos*(pos+1)/2.0)/(pos*neg); else auc=0.5;
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hrate=(hn>0)? hc/hn : 0;
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lift=hrate-base;
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printf "%d %d %.4f %.4f %d %d %.4f %.4f", n, pos, base, auc, hn, hc, hrate, lift
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}')
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EOF
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verdict="$(awk -v auc="$AUC" -v lift="$LIFT" 'BEGIN{
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print (auc <= 0.60 || lift <= 0.05) ? "KILL §7–§8 — confidence not usable" : "signal present — proceed"
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}')"
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if [[ "$FORMAT" == "md" ]]; then
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cat <<EOF
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## P1 — confidence calibration
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- rows: **${N}** (positives ${POS}) · base correct-rate **$(awk "BEGIN{printf \"%.1f\", 100*${BASE}}")%**
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- ROC AUC: **${AUC}**
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- high-confidence subset (>= ${HIGH}): n=${HIGH_N}, correct=${HIGH_CORRECT}, rate=$(awk "BEGIN{printf \"%.1f\", 100*${HIGH_RATE}}")%
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- lift over base: **$(awk "BEGIN{printf \"%+.1f\", 100*${LIFT}}")pp**
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- kill condition: ${KILL_CONDITION}
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- verdict: **${verdict}**
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EOF
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else
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awk -v n="$N" -v pos="$POS" -v base="$BASE" -v auc="$AUC" -v hn="$HIGH_N" \
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-v hc="$HIGH_CORRECT" -v hr="$HIGH_RATE" -v lift="$LIFT" -v high="$HIGH" \
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-v v="$verdict" -v kc="$KILL_CONDITION" 'BEGIN{
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printf "{\n"
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printf " \"experiment\": \"P1-calibration\",\n"
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printf " \"rows\": %d,\n", n
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printf " \"positives\": %d,\n", pos
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printf " \"base_rate\": %.4f,\n", base
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printf " \"auc\": %.4f,\n", auc
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printf " \"high_threshold\": %s,\n", high
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printf " \"high_subset\": { \"n\": %d, \"correct\": %d, \"rate\": %.4f },\n", hn, hc, hr
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printf " \"lift_over_base\": %.4f,\n", lift
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printf " \"kill_condition\": \"%s\",\n", kc
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printf " \"verdict\": \"%s\"\n", v
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printf "}\n"
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}'
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fi
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