F-06 follow-up per Mos ruling. The no-CI fast-exit was a pure empty-poll streak (NO_CI_MAX×interval ≈ 45s), so a slow-to-register pipeline (webhook/queue lag) looked like 'no CI' and could false-green a merge gate before the pipeline existed. Two-tier no-CI determination: - PRIMARY: probe the repo's DEFAULT BRANCH commit status once at startup. If it has CI history, the repo runs CI → an empty status on the PR head means the pipeline has not REGISTERED yet → never fast-green; poll until it registers or timeout (both safe). Closes the webhook-lag false-green. - SECONDARY: the empty-poll streak fast-exit now applies ONLY to genuinely CI-less repos (default branch also has no CI history). Preserves the original no-CI win. - Probe failure → conservative REPO_HAS_CI=1 (assume CI; wait-then-timeout beats false-green). All early returns are explicit 'return 0' + guarded call so the probe can never abort under set -e. Verified: bash -n + shellcheck clean; behavioral harness covers established-repo (stays 1), CI-less (→0), empty-branch/probe-fail (conservative 1), and the no-status gate (has-CI never fast-greens, CI-less fast-exits). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Kt2D8TsnDwhtzEAPijsNmR
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