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stack/scripts/analysis/reflect-git-history.sh
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feat(agent-reflection): durable kernel — reflection.v1 capture + risk-floor + Phase-0 (#544)
Build the durable kernel of the agent reflection loop. Passive end-of-run
capture of the doer's end-state as structured `reflection.v1` data, plus a
deterministic diff review risk-floor. The closed calibration/skill-synthesis
loop (design §7–§8) stays gated behind Phase-0 experiments P1/P2/P3.

- packages/macp: evaluateRiskFloor (pure, deterministic surface classifier)
  + reflection.v1 JSON Schema; 15 unit tests.
- packages/types: reflection.v1 zod schemas + self-report DTO; 10 unit tests.
- framework: fail-closed Stop hook (reflect-stop-hook.sh) writing the sidecar,
  registered as hooks.Stop in runtime/claude/settings.json. Strict no-op unless
  REFLECTION_MODE=solo|orchestrated; never blocks or fails a session.
- scripts/analysis: P1/P2/P3 experiment harnesses with pre-registered kill
  conditions and structured output.

Mechanical fields (risk, files_changed, ids, provenance) are written by the
hook; self-report fields (confidence, most_likely_wrong, known_not_in_diff) are
merged from an optional $REFLECTION_INPUT, else null + provenance.degraded=true.

Independent review remediations: empty/all-.mosaic diff still writes a sidecar
(grep no-match no longer aborts); session_id sanitized before path use.

Refs #544

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-16 15:55:15 -05:00

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#!/usr/bin/env bash
# reflect-git-history.sh — Phase-0 experiment P2 ("only-self-reflection" bucket)
#
# Question: of the failures visible in git history, what fraction would ONLY
# have been caught by end-of-run self-reflection — i.e. NOT by CI and NOT by
# independent human review? If that bucket is near-empty, the closed
# calibration / skill-synthesis loop (design §7§8) is not worth building.
#
# Method: scan `git log` over a window for failure signals (reverts, and
# fix:/hotfix commits landing shortly after a feature merge). Classify each by
# the gate most likely to have caught it, using a pre-registered heuristic.
# This is a HARNESS + RUBRIC; the classifier is deliberately simple and the
# real corpus/labelling is wired later. It emits a structured tally.
#
# Usage:
# scripts/analysis/reflect-git-history.sh [--repo PATH] [--since SINCE] [--json|--md]
#
# Options:
# --repo PATH repo to analyse (default: current repo)
# --since SINCE git log --since value (default: "6 months ago")
# --json emit JSON (default)
# --md emit markdown
#
# Requirements: git, awk.
#
# PRE-REGISTERED KILL CONDITION:
# bucket "only_self_reflection" is near-empty (< 10% of classified failures)
# ⇒ do NOT build design §7§8 (closed loop). Caveat-notes capture only.
set -euo pipefail
REPO="."
SINCE="6 months ago"
FORMAT="json"
while [[ $# -gt 0 ]]; do
case "$1" in
--repo) REPO="$2"; shift 2 ;;
--since) SINCE="$2"; shift 2 ;;
--json) FORMAT="json"; shift ;;
--md) FORMAT="md"; shift ;;
-h|--help) sed -n '2,30p' "$0"; exit 0 ;;
*) echo "unknown arg: $1" >&2; exit 2 ;;
esac
done
KILL_CONDITION='bucket only_self_reflection < 10% of classified failures ⇒ do NOT build §7§8'
echo "# pre-registered kill condition: ${KILL_CONDITION}" >&2
command -v git >/dev/null 2>&1 || { echo "git required" >&2; exit 3; }
# Collect candidate failure commits: reverts + fix/hotfix subjects.
mapfile -t LINES < <(
git -C "$REPO" log --since="$SINCE" --pretty='%H%x09%s' 2>/dev/null \
| grep -iE 'revert|hotfix|hot-fix|regression|fix(\(|:|!| )' || true
)
total=0; ci=0; human=0; selfonly=0
for line in "${LINES[@]}"; do
[[ -z "$line" ]] && continue
subj="${line#*$'\t'}"
total=$((total + 1))
# Pre-registered classification heuristic (gate most likely to have caught it):
# - build/test/lint/type/ci signals → CI would have caught it
# - security/auth/permission/data/migration → human review would flag it
# - everything else (logic/UX/assumption/edge) → only-self-reflection bucket
if printf '%s' "$subj" | grep -qiE 'test|lint|type|build|ci|compile|typo'; then
ci=$((ci + 1))
elif printf '%s' "$subj" | grep -qiE 'security|auth|permission|rbac|secret|migration|data|sql|injection'; then
human=$((human + 1))
else
selfonly=$((selfonly + 1))
fi
done
pct() { awk "BEGIN{ if ($2==0) print \"0.0\"; else printf \"%.1f\", 100*$1/$2 }"; }
self_pct="$(pct "$selfonly" "$total")"
verdict="$(awk "BEGIN{print ($self_pct < 10.0) ? \"KILL §7§8\" : \"signal present — proceed to deeper labelling\"}")"
if [[ "$FORMAT" == "md" ]]; then
cat <<EOF
## P2 — git-history failure-gate attribution
- window: \`${SINCE}\` · repo: \`${REPO}\`
- classified failures: **${total}**
| gate | count | share |
|---|---:|---:|
| CI would catch | ${ci} | $(pct "$ci" "$total")% |
| human review would catch | ${human} | $(pct "$human" "$total")% |
| only-self-reflection | ${selfonly} | ${self_pct}% |
- kill condition: ${KILL_CONDITION}
- verdict: **${verdict}**
EOF
else
awk -v t="$total" -v c="$ci" -v h="$human" -v s="$selfonly" -v sp="$self_pct" \
-v v="$verdict" -v since="$SINCE" -v repo="$REPO" -v kc="$KILL_CONDITION" 'BEGIN{
printf "{\n"
printf " \"experiment\": \"P2-git-history\",\n"
printf " \"repo\": \"%s\",\n", repo
printf " \"since\": \"%s\",\n", since
printf " \"classified_failures\": %d,\n", t
printf " \"buckets\": { \"ci\": %d, \"human_review\": %d, \"only_self_reflection\": %d },\n", c, h, s
printf " \"only_self_reflection_pct\": %s,\n", sp
printf " \"kill_condition\": \"%s\",\n", kc
printf " \"verdict\": \"%s\"\n", v
printf "}\n"
}'
fi